By Steven Booth
The trade deadline and the dog days of August close in like hungry weasels. And the best record in the National league belongs to…………………..The Padres?!?. Hmmmmm. Everyone except Adrian Gonzales got that one wrong. Looks like Padre management will have to put away their “fire sale” signs. The wildcard is………………The Giants!. So much for this guy’s crowning the NL West as the “Most Mediocre Division in Baseball”.
The Padres, it’s all in the pitching. Gonzales is having a good year with the bat, but the rest of the offense is very mediocre on paper. They get hits when they need it. Jerry Hairston was the hero last night, knocking in three runs. Their pitching is amazing, no doubt about it. Until this season, Jon Garland was a decent middle rotation guy who the Dodgers made no attempt whatsoever to sign, and guys like Wade LeBlanc, Mat Latos and Clayton Richard were unheard of. Guys like Luke Gregerson (2.55 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) get the ball to the ninth, and leave it to Heath Bell.
You sit here waiting for the freefall, and it never happens. It doesn’t look like it will, either.
The Giants will probably go into August as the wildcard. Not terribly surprising. They’ve hung around all year and got hot when the Dodgers and Rockies were floundering. Like the Padres, it’s their pitching. Their big four (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito) are pitching exactly the way the Giants management intended. Don’t look now, but there looks to be a fifth amigo here. Madison Bumgarner has six starts, won four of them and has a 2.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. What’s cool with the Giants is their main man Pablo Sandoval is not having such a great year and most of the old guys they got to back him up are pretty much acting like old guys. Aubrey Huff is the exception to this. He is having a monster year, hitting .310 with a .400 OBP, 19 HR and 62 RBI). Something tells me he found Barry Bonds’s missing black book and has been calling some of the numbers. Young guys like Buster Posey (.363 BA, .401 OBP) and Andres Torres (.287 BA, .376 OBP, 18 SB in 91 games) are stepping it up, making this a very dangerous team.
How about those Dodgers? Being six out at the trade deadline isn’t exactly the end of the world, but in this division it is a disappointment if they do not make it in the playoffs this year.
Clayton Kershaw is slowly but surely becoming an ace, while Chad Billingsley seems to be finding his groove. Hiroki Kuroda has been fairly solid, but it is literally a black hole after that. Hong Shih Kuo is turning into a fine setup man for Jonathan Broxton, but the middle relief is scary after that. Overall good news about the pitching, but getting a Scott Downs , a Ted Lilly, or God forbid a Roy Oswalt by the deadline would help.
The offense, once the solution, is now the problem. Andre Ethier has cooled off, Matt Kemp has stabilized, but is still not the dominant force the Dodgers were counting on. Every time Manny Ramirez has been injured, their averages cool off. Many may not be the hitter he was a few years ago, but the team plays much better when he is in the lineup.
The Dodgers have played decently lately, but decently is not going to do it. The Padres and Giants don’t look to be going anywhere soon, so the Dodgers need to get hot. Picking up Scott Posednik helps, but he won’t protect Kemp or Ethier, won’t fill the back of the rotation or be the sixth or seventh inning guy the Dodgers need.
The Rockies are circling, but that is everyone said a few years ago when they won the division after being in even worse shape than they are today. They await the return of Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitski, but it may not be enough. Carlos Gonzales is having a fine year (18 HR, 63 RBI, .307 BA), but with Helton looking old and/or hurt, Tulowitski battling injuries all year and Ian Stewart falling off a bit, it doesn’t look good for them. Pitching-wise, Ubaldo Jimenez cannot do it all by himself, and he is starting to show some wear.
Hard to say if the Rockies will go into “sell” mode. Look for them to hold onto the belief that they can still make a run with a healthy Helton and Tulowitski in the lineup.
Giving up Danny Haren to the Angels officially put the Diamondbacks in sell mode. They fall farther and farther back. Somebody may want Chad Qualls, Edwin Jackson may be attractive to some other teams and Chris Young may have played well enough to get traded to a contender, who knows.
So who would’ve guessed that the NL West would be the strongest division going into August? The Padres have the best record in the NL despite a no-name pitching staff and no hitting, the Giants are leading the wildcard race and are only three games back from the lead with top-of-the-line pitching and little hitting, The Dodgers are still breathing, but sarcasm aside, the ownership mess may kill them this year. The Rockies may or may not be looking to next year, while the Diamondbacks contemplate 2012.
