Dodgers Playing Not to Lose, the Hungry Rockies, Pitching-Rich Giants, Power-Happy DBacks, and a Cautionary Tale About How Divorces Tear Teams Apart
By Steven Booth
The NL West is one of the weaker divisions in baseball. You have the Dodgers, maybe the Rockies and a slew of middle market teams in various stages of re-building or contending. That being said, it’s a crazy long year and with a Dodger decline and/or the Giants, Rockies, or DBacks rising up, this could very well be an exciting race. While the Dodgers are the prohibitive favorite, they did next to nothing to improve themselves save hoping their strong young nucleus of talent progresses. The Rockies look poised to knock on the door with a deep pitching staff and a young, hungry lineup. The Giants also have great pitching that can carry them a long way if the Dodgers or Rockies falter. While the Diamondbacks are a little further down the rebuilding food chain, a healthy Brandon Webb and a powerful middle of the lineup can make them a factor. The Padres are in a painful transition mode brought on by ownership troubles (read this Dodgers), and will be hard-pressed to stay in the race. Look for the Dodgers and Rockies to take this down to the wire, but don’t count out the Giants either. The Diamondbacks can possibly make a run, and the Padres……….well, it’s going to be a long year.
1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Frank McCourt must figure that as long as the Dodgers win their division and/or make it to the playoffs, it’s anybody’s game after that. They did beat the supposedly superior Cardinals in the first round, and then ran into the buzz-saw Phillies in the second round. They may have enough to win their division, but did nothing to strengthen their hands come playoff time. Even the playoffs shouldn’t be taken for granted. The Rockies are going to come hard this year, and the Dodgers better watch their backs.
The key for the Dodgers is in their starting pitching. Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley need to turn into the devastating one-two punch they are capable of being. Kershaw should mature into the ace this year, but Billingsley needs to be more consistent and avoid the second-half decline he had last year. There is no mid-rotation guy like Randy Wolf or Jon Garland around to pick them up if they falter. Their bullpen should be strength like it’s always been, and except for the comic genius of Manny Ramirez in left field, are strong defensively.
Offensively, they should be fine. If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he’s a fine leadoff man. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should bring the power. Manny is a question mark, but should be able to bring power and presence to the lineup, if nothing else. James Loney and especially Russell Martin need to offset production declines of the last few years to add more depth to the lineup.
The key is the starting pitching. Even if Kershaw and Billingsley are strong, middle guys Vicente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda need to fill the middle spots capably and consistently. If that doesn’t happen, Mc Court needs to let Ned Colletti do his job and find somebody mid-season.
2. COLORADO ROCKIES
It’s the pitching, man. The Rockies got it over the last few years, instead of relying on the altitude and generous confines of Coors Field to bludgeon opponents into submission. They found a strong pitching staff, and still have a strong enough lineup to score runs. They also found Dodger discard Jim Tracy, who was able to bring it all together last year. Look for them to be breathing down the Dodgers neck all year, perhaps even surpassing them.
Their starting pitching is their biggest strength. Ubaldo Jimenez may be an ace about to happen, Aaron Cook and Jorge de la Rosa bring depth to the middle of the rotation, and the return of Jeff Francis from being injured is the key heThe bullpen is solid- although Huston Street is out until May, Franklin Morales has proven to be a strong closer when needed.
The offense will be anchored by Troy Tuolowitski. He is picked by many to be the MVP here, and should make life very unhappy for pitchers around the league. Word is this his “year”. We shall see. Carlos Gonzales and Dexter Fowler bring speed at the top the lineup, and While Todd Helton’s 35/120 ballroom days are over, he remains a solid #3. The rest of the lineup is a mix of solid vets like Clint Barmes and Brad Hawpe mixed with up-and-comers 3B Ian Stewart and C Chris Ianetta. The young guys look to establish themselves as every day players, and it is their success will play a large role in deciding the fate of the Rockies.
The key is their lineup. Helton and Tuolowitski should anchor the middle, but young guys like Gonzales, Fowler, Stewart and Ianetta need to establish themselves as solid everyday players. While there is some depth with veterans like Melvin Mora and Jason Giambi, these old guys won’t be able to completely bail out the youngsters if they falter. All signs in spring point to this group coming together nicely and giving the Dodgers a dogfight for the division.
3. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The post-Barry Bonds Giants have always seemed to be under-funded and over their heads on paper, but like last year, stayed in the race very late and made life uncomfortable for the front-running Dodgers and Rockies. They have the best starting pitching in the NL West with a decent bullpen, but finding an offense will be the question mark this year.
Tim Lincecum smokes weed, looks like a death-metal stoner, but can bring it. Sort of like a young Pedro Martinez, it is a wonder how a skinny guy can bring all that heat. He can win 20 games even with a high school team backing him up. Matt Cain isn’t quite that scary, but pitches like a #1 and would be#1 on many other teams. Barry Zito almost remembered he was Barry Zito last year, and looked solid most of the year. Jonathan Sanchez, while still more about potential than production, is more than capable as a #4 guy. Their bullpen is solid. Brian Wilson pitched on the edge of disaster much of the year, but still got 30 saves and a 2.74 ERA. Jeremy Affeldt is one of the league’s premier set-up guys.
The offense is the elephant in the closet here. Besides stud Pedro Sandoval, the Giants lineup reads like a list of solid, slightly past-their prime veterans. While these guys would make fine role-players on good teams and nice mentors on bad teams, they can’t be counted on to carry teams all year like this group will be asked to do. Aaron Rowand batting lead-off gives away that there is no speed here. The middle guys Sandoval, Aubrey Huff, and Mark De Rosa will get some dingers here, but will not set the world on fire. The bottom part of the lineup won’t embarrass themselves, but won’t give opponents sleepless nights, either. The defense looks to be below-average to poor.
The key to the Giants is to have the pitching keep them in the games, and the old guys scoring enough runs to win. Not too far-fetched, if you really think about it, but nothing you’d bet your life on. Pedro Sandoval having an MVP-type year and the geezers maintaining their consistency are the keys here. Strong third place showing, unless Brian Saeban works some magic here.
4. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
The Diamondbacks are well into their rebuilding mode and are still a year or two from being a contender. You still can’t turn your back on them, though. They have the most potent (aside from the Dodgers with an awake Manny Ramirez) middle of the lineup in the division, and if they can get a healthy Brandon Webb back they have a strong nucleus of pitching that is the key to any contending team.
Justin Upton is the resident superstar-to-be, and he should anchor the middle of the lineup, with a strong average, power numbers, and speed. Cleanup guy Adam La Roche, buried most of his career on bad Pirate teams, is a very underrated power source. Mark Reynolds, the Dave Kingman award winner, combines huge power with huge strikeout potential. These guys should hit in some runs and make games very interesting. Stephen Drew, while a solid shortstop, is not much of a leadoff hitter, (Kelly Johnson would be a better fit), and Chris Young should be happy after two dismal years that they’re still running him out there. If they have good years, Young and catcher Miguel Montero should add more power to the mix, instilling more fear into rival pitching staffs.
Danny Haren is the number #1, but needs to put together a full season, instead of one half brilliance and half mediocrity. Edwin Jackson was a great pickup, and has come into his own after being cast off by a few teams. The bullpen, anchored by close Chad Qualls and setup guys Bobby Howry and Aaron Heilman is very solid, if not lights-out. The key here is Webb. If he can come back and return to his ace form, their pitching will be very solid.
Webb is the key. The offense will score runs, Haren needs to act like an ace for a whole season, and Jackson needs to be the same guy he was with the Tigers. Having Brandon Webb around for most of the season can very well put the Diamondbacks in the conversation.
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES
The mis-adventures of John Moores should read as a cautionary tale to the Dodgers ownership on how divorce can ruin a team. Moores was a solid owner with a good front office who took a team with limited financial means and made them a consistent contender, if not a world-beater. Now with Moores and brilliant GM Kevin Towers out, things are starting over for the Padres, and it doesn’t look like it’s getting better anytime soon.
Jon Garland was a solid pickup who should add some veteran leadership to the rotation. Chris Young is coming off two injury-plagued seasons, but if healthy can contribute. Edwin Corriea developed into a solid mid-rotation guy. The later rotation spots are filled with guys the Padres are happy with, with more help soon on the way from Portland. The bullpen is anchored by the dominant Heath Bell, with fine setup guys Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson. This group should actually do a good job keeping the Padres in games. It is the run-scoring where the issues arise.
Adrian Gonzales is a bona-fide superstar, but has little help around him and no power protection. Tony Gwynn should get on base ahead of him, but scrappy David Eckstein is in decline in the two hole. Hopefully they can get speed on the basepaths to set him and the other middle guys up. Behind him in the four spot is the unproven Kyle Blanks, who will need to have a breakout year to make things interesting for the Padres. Other guys like Chase Headley and Scott Hairston can also help in the power department, but it is thin overall. Look for the Padres to try and deal Gonzales and/or Bell at midseason.
