Progress is the theme from top to bottom, but will anyone catch St. Louis?
The Cardinals led nearly wire-to-wire last year and didn’t look back after taking back the division lead on August 2nd. The Cubs disappointed again, finishing a distant second while the hopefuls Brewers never really got close. The Reds, Astros and Pirates all took their lumps like expected and rounded out the division. Each team made waves in the offseason, some through addition, some subtraction and some just through graduating/progressing young players. The division will be more competitive in 2010, but the Cardinals have the Target on their backs.
Chicago Cubs
They’ll win the division if…They get the kind of production they expect from their core. Nothing seemed to go right from the start for the Cubs with pitching woes derailing things early and the ongoing Milton Bradley saga hurting the clubhouse. Geo Soto fell flat as a sophomore and when they lost Aramis Ramirez for an extended stretch the offense went silent. The Pitching staff has been reassembled(so long Rich Harden, hello Randy Wells and Tom Gorzelanny) with the team looking to veterans Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano to anchor them. The offense and culture will be better simply with Bradly gone, not to mention Soto and Alfonso Soriano can’t be that bad again(can they?). The Cubs should be back to contending and are the top candidate to unseat St. Louis.
Potential Breakout…Randy Wells. The righty starter filled in amicably when the likes of Harden and others went down, so the Cubs rewarded him with a rotation spot for this season. He’s not going to overpower anyone, but he also doesn’t hurt himself with walks(46 in 165+ IP in 2009). His consistency from the 4th spot in the rotation will carry the Cubs far this year. Also look for Soto to return to more of his 2008 version after he lost 40 lbs in the offseason and committed himself to reworking his swing.
Rookie Impact…SS Starlin Castro. The kid can flat out hit and play top defense at short. If not for Ryan Theriot he’d be breaking camp and starting on opening day. Manager Lou Piniella even stated that if Theriot goes down Castro will be the guy to take his place without hesitation. It looks like the Cubs have a cornerstone in this 20-y/o future star.
Chicago definitely has the talent, but it’s going to come down to injuries for this team. Can Ramirez and Derrick Lee hold up all season? Will the starting rotation stay intact for the long haul? Health will make or break this team. The bullpen is also a bit of a concern with THREE rookies breaking camp in middle relief roles. We’ll see how long that lasts. My over/under is April 22nd.
Cincinnati Reds
They’ll win the division if…The kids breakout. The Reds have more potential breakouts this year than any other club. Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey all have the ability to excite. Mix that with a group of veterans who have the experience to lead them and it’s a pretty potent concoction. The rotation is solid with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo in front of Bailey and Cueto. The offense will be nasty with Votto, Brandon Phillips and Rolen hitting with runners on base all year. Watch out for this bunch to make a run for the division, if not more.
Potential Breakout…Bruce/Stubbs. This duo will make up two thirds of a top defensive outfield and could collaborate to produce countless runs along the way. They both have fantastic athletic ability, allowing them to track down almost anything in the air. Stubbs will lead off and with his speed he’ll be able to get himself around the bases. Bruce struggled in his debut last year but he’s got way too much pure talent to repeat his 2009 performance. He’ll hit fifth and has big time power and speed. Look for Stubbs to be waiting for him at home plate at least 20 times this year after Bruce hits him in on a bomb.
Rookie Impact…Aroldis Chapman. This year’s Cuban gem surprised many by signing with the Reds, but it looks like they’ll see an early return on their investment. Chapman was lights out all spring before being sent down for some extra seasoning in AAA. He’ll pitch his way into the majors by June if injuries or inconsistency from fifth starter Micah Owings doesn’t get him there sooner.
The Reds are a trendy pick to put it together and shock the Central, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. They do have a ton of promise and potential and those are things that don’t always go your way. If the get even 75% of the right results they’ll be a dangerous club from start to finish. Fear the new Big Red Machine!
Houston Astros
They’ll win the division if…Everything goes right AND they get a ton of help. Houston was flat out bad in 2009. They fired their manager, Cecil Cooper, and replaced him with relatively unknown Brad Mills. The fifth place finish was their worst since 1991. They just couldn’t seem to put a halfway decent five man rotation together and the offense was way too long ball-reliant. 2010 doesn’t look much more promising. The rotation will again be an adventure behind Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez with Brett Myers, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino backing them up. The offense is getting old in some spots(Lance Berkman, Pedro Feliz) and too young in others (Tommy Manzella, JR Towles). This team just looks like it’s built to tread water, and barely.
Potential Breakout…Bud Norris. The Astros’ farm system is so bad that a high strikeout potential starter with not-so-great command is their best bet to possibly be good. Norris impressed in a handful of September starts, striking out 24 batters in 23 innings with a sub-2.00 ERA after struggling in his first six starts. Norris will take his lumps but could provide some chances for his lack-luster club to steal some wins.
Rookie Impact…C Jason Castro. The Stanford Product looks ready to contribute now but was passed over for JR Towles at the starting catcher spot(probably to delay his arbitration clock). Castro has an MLB ready bat and the kind of game calling skills to hold a catcher spot for years. He’ll be up at some point, whether to spell Towles once he disappoints or by June when his arb clock won’t start until 2011.
The Astros have one thing going for the: this is baseball and anything can happen. Short of a series of small miracles, though, this team is going to stay in the bottom third of this division and could see it’s first last place finish since realignment. Heres to hoping they land some top pitching prospects with their top ten picks the nest two years.
Milwaukee Brewers
They’ll win the division if…The pitching staff is lights out. The Brewers are going to hit with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun anchoring the offense, but they can’t hope to outscore everyone. Yovani Gallardo needs to become the ace he’s been advertised as while the back end of Jeff Suppon and Manny Parra have to be better. Randy Wolf was the big addition to help out the staff coming off his best year in 2009 with LA. Can he be the same or at least similar to his 2009 form? The Brewers are banking that he will. There are also young players in place of subtracted veterans in the lineup, so the rotation will be relied to pick up the slack on even more in 2010.
Potential Breakout/Rookie Impact…SS Alcides Escobar. This is a double whammy. Escobar did enough in the minors in 2009 to make believers out of the Milwaukee big wigs, who sent incumbent JJ Hardy to Minny. Escobar is a defensive wizard with a bat that caught up to his fielding abilities last year. Combine those traits with his lightning speed and he’s just what the Brewers need at the top of the order. He hit .300 in a small sample to finish last year in the majors, so we’ll see how he handles it for a whole year. Another potential rookie impact could come at the catcher position with Jonathan LuCroy. The young backstop is a reliable back and good behind the plate. With Gregg Zaun in front of him it may not be long before he calling games in Miller Park.
The Brewers failed in trying to make the playoffs for a second straight year in 2009 but the drive for October is still there. They will be competitive, but when it comes down to it the pitching staff looks too thin and the offense just a little too suspect. The Brewers’ window is closing, and unless they get some rotation help they’ll find themselves at home yet again instead of competing for a pennant.
Pittsburgh Pirates
They’ll win the division if…C’mon, lets be serious, this one just isn’t happening. The 2009 Pirates did tie a professional sports record last year: most consecutive losing seasons, 16. All hope is not lost for Pirates fans, though. They have a great core of youngsters, and as long as the front office doesn’t give them away for cash and garbage they could break that record very soon, or at least within a few years. The likes of Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge and Paul Maholm are tasked with raising the spirits of a downtrodden fan base, and they just might succeed.
Potential Breakoout…Andrew McCutchen. All eyes have been on McCutchen since he stole 34 bags at AAA in 2008. He’s a great defensive center fielder and will spark the Pirate attack from the one spot. He’s still a bit raw at 23-y/o, but has the ability to hit near .300 and join the 20-20 club(HR/SB). The Pirates need him to be a catalyst and he’s talented enough to do so. Think Grady Sizemore. Don’t laugh, he’s got the talent to succeed at that level.
Rookie Impact…3B Pedro Alvarez. The slugging prospect is too talented to let a perennial bust like Andy LaRoche stand in his way. Alverez has massive power to all fields and will be a rock for years to come in Pittsburgh, complimenting the speed they have in McCutchen and Milledge. Pedro should be up no later than June, barring an injury setback.
The Pirates are not great, barely even good, but they are definitely getting better. The rotation is suspect as always, but there is at least some hope with more youngsters than aging journeymen. The goal this year should be .500 to get rid of the losing tradition and give the young core something to build on for the next years to come. I’m sure they’d settle for finishing higher than 6th in the division, though. It’d be just the second time in six years if they did.
St. Louis Cardinals
They’ll win the division if…The guys outside the spotlight produce. Everyone knows how great Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are. But how good can the other 21 guys on the roster be? The offense won’t struggle to score, but the defense could be suspect on the left side with Brendan Ryan and rookie David Freese. The rotation gets very iffy after the top two. Can Dave Duncan work his magic with Brad Penny? Kyle McClellan? Can Ryan Franklin overcome postseason lapses and hold his closer job? It’s no guarantee this team will tear through the division like they did in the second half last year. That core will help to quell any rough spots, though, making them the favorites for the crown.
Potential Breakout…Colby Rasmus. The highly touted rookie floundered last year, struggling to hold down his job in center and ultimately splitting time with Rick Ankiel. Ankiel is gone, so he won’t have to look over his shoulder anymore and should settle in to his favorable spot in the order, hitting second in front of Pujols/Holliday. Rasmus is still very young, but a 20/20 season with over 90 runs is not out of the question. If he really figures it out the rest of the Central is in big trouble considering where he hits in that lineup. Talk about a gauntlet.
Rookie Impact…SP Jamie Garcia. Many will point to Freese as a bigger impact since he’s going to break camp starting at the hot corner. Garcia cannot be overlooked as a potential bailout for that rotation. There is a lot of uncertainty among Penny, McClellan and Kyle Lohse and Garcia is ready to step in and contribute. He’s come back from Tommy John surgery to frustrate minor league hitters with a nasty 12-6 curveball and he’s primed to unleash it in the MLB. Look for him as the first option should someone in the rotation falter or as an injury fill-in.
The Cardinals are primed to defend their division crown, even if they have some rough edges around the roster. The Combo of Pujols and Holliday is too good for the offense to hit a prolonged slump, likewise with Carpenter and Wainwright as far as the staff goes. Ryan Franklin might lose his job, but you can bet Tony Larusa will have a remedy if needed. The Cards are the team to beat in the Central, if not the NL.
When the dust settles…
This division will be a three horse race at the end. Go ahead and count out the Astros and Pirates now. The Brewers will slug their way to a threat until about July when they fall off. That leaves us with the Reds, Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs have too many injury risks for me to give them a real shot at the division and the Reds just have too many ‘ifs’ involved to really make a run. The Cards have been there, have a manager who knows how to deal with adversity and possibly the best offensive/starting pitching combos in the game. They will be pushed, but St. louis will where the crown again n 2010.
Final Standings
St. Louis Cardinals 92-70
Chicago Cubs 87-75
Cincinnati Reds 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates 78-84
Houston Astros 71-91
