Sit back, relax, and strap it down AL Central fans. 2010 is going to be another wild ride
Minnesota just doesn’t go away. Ever. They made a miraculous comeback to stun the Detroit Tigers last year, forcing a one game playoff for the division crown, the second year in a row for that scenario in the AL Central. The Tigers managed to lose a three game lead with four games left in the season, opening the door for the ‘piranhas’ to take the division. The White Sox weren’t a factor come September, and the Indians and Royals stayed with recent tradition and had seasons to forget. Can we expect more of the same this year? The division is wide open again and while Cleveland and K.C. still look like bottom feeders, the White Sox and Tigers made big changes in hope to create the right formula to unseat the Twinkies. If we’ve learned anything this decade, though, the Twins will be in prime position for another crown come September.
Chicago White Sox
They’ll win the division if…John Danks and Gavin Floyd pitch to their potential. The two young starters have progressed as well as any starters their age the last two years, but inconsistency has held them back from stardom. The addition of Jake Peavy lightens the load to an extent, but for a team built on pitching, defense and speed these two young horses will need to be in top form all year for this team to succeed.
Potential Breakout…Gordon Beckham. I know, I know. He was great in his debut last year, but faltered some down the stretch and ended with a .270 average. Beckham needs to hit near .300 and hit for power in a lineup that is all the sudden devoid of big boppers(Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome are gone). He has to do this while also handling a position change from 3B to 2B, his second change in as many years. He also has to manage these on field expectations with the off-field ones as he is now the future-and face-of the franchise.
Rookie Impatact…SP Daniel Hudson. Hudson shot through the system last year, climbing from Low-A ball all the way to the majors. The big righty will be counted on at some point to join the rotation and as Chicago’s top pitching prospect will be expect to produce. He could become a big piece to the puzzle down the stretch as the staff is sure to have piled up the innings by September.
The ceiling is a division crown for the White Sox, but they could also fall flat with such a change in philosophy/personal. Full years of Alex Rios and Jake Peavy as well as trades for Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen and signings of Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel have the White Sox looking completely different from opening day 2009. Ozzie got what he wanted in the offseason, it’s time to show his way is the right way.
Cleveland Indians
They’ll win the division if…All the rookie bats/arms come alive, the pitching staff works a miracle and the Twins, Tigers and White Sox all have problems. Quite the task. The indians are a youthful bunch with question marks all over the place, so you can’t expect too much from them this season. It will be a big year for the likes of Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley and Justin Masterson, all top prospects acquired in deals for starts like CC Sabathia and Victor Martinez in the last two years. They need to find out who fits into their new core with Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore going forward.
Potential Breakout…Matt Laporta. LaPorta is already saddled with being the major return for Sabathia and the expectations seemed to get the best of him last year. he made an early debut in May, but bounced between the minors and majors all year after a poor start. The Indians need him to make the next step and he has to tools to do it. He can carry an offense with his HR power, a middle-of-the-order bat that Cleveland sees driving in 100+ runs for years.
Rookie Impact…C Carlos Santana. Santana was a steal for Casey Blake from the Dodgers at the 2008 deadline. He’s regarded as the top catching prospect in some circles, and is ready to hit at the major league level. Lou Marson, a fellow rookie acquired for Cliff Lee last year, will have the job out of the gate, but look for Santana to hit his way into a starting role by mid-season.
The Indians are definitely in rebuilding mode, but now we’ll see if they got enough return for their top players over the last two years. If the kids fail, it’s going to be a loooooong time until Cleveland is relevant in baseball again. Quite the 180 from a team that was one win from a World Series in 2007.
Detroit Tigers
They’ll win the division if…The young pitching behind Justin Verlander holds up. Max Scherzer(fireballer) and Rick Porcello(control freak) need to be rocks in the middle of the rotation. Quite a task to ask of a couple 20-somethings but they have the stuff to do it. Porcello shined as a rookie before being shut down by his work load, he’ll be fine. The big question lies with Scherzer, who battled shoulder injuries in his short career with Arizona. The offense will be counted on to bounce back and help out the young staff as well. A big year from a rejuvenated Magglio Ordonez will go a long way to helping out the young staff.
Potential Breakout…Scott Sizemore. The young 2B logged his share of at-bats in the minors and is ready to take over the same position in detroit. They’ll look to him to get on base at the top of the order as he displayed a .389 OBP in AA/AAA last year with 21 steals. He’s tasked with replacing the consistency and defense of the departed Placido Polanco, and with regular playing time he should surpass that production and then some.
Rookie Impact…C Alex Avila. There are many rookies to choose from, which is a bit suspect for a contender, with bigger names like Sizmore, Austin Jackson(from Yankees) and Scherzer all taking big roles. Avila could lap them all and do it from a normally light hitting position, catcher. He hit 12 homers in 93 AA games last year with a .365 OBP and is ready to hit in the majors after just two minor league seasons. Gerald Laird(.225/4HR in 2009) will have starting duties on opening day, but the fact Avila made the club as his backup is telling. Avila will end the year as the starter and provide a big boost to the offense.
The Tigers decided it was time to cut bait on Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson, build for now and the future while still trying to contend. They will have problems in the rotation, but with no one running away with anything in the Central they’ll try to win a division while rebuilding on the fly. If anyone can keep this ship on course it’s manager Jom Leyland, though management hasn’t made it easy on him.
Kansas City Royals
They’ll win the division if…Dysney makes a movie about them making some miraculous run with angels, jesus and a resurrected Cy Young leading the staff. OK, so they have DeJesus, but the other two aren’t there. The Royals again went with patchwork free agents like Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel and have young players all over the diamond. It’s a recurring theme. The Royals biggest goal this year is to not screw Zack Greinke out of wins so he has another chance at an AL CY Young.
Potential Breakout…Billy Butler. He’s the best hitter they have, but they managed to handle him so poorly over the last few years that they stunted his baseball growth until he finally broke out after the break in 2009. Butler has been mashing since the end of last year(13 second half HR) and as long as he doesn’t try to do it all himself and get injured he should rise to the elite level of 1B in the league.
Rookie Impact…Aaron Crow. The Royals don’t develop talent well at all, shown in their lack of making anything out of their seemingly endless line of high draft picks. Crow decided not to sign with the Nationals after being drafted in the top ten in 2008 and the Royals took him in 2009 after a year in the Independent League. He’s advanced as a starter and should be ready to contribute mid-season, which will help out Greinke and Gil Meche as they try to hold it together for the rest of the suspect KC rotation.
The Royals culture is one of the worst in baseball. they overhauled the talent evaluation and minor league management a few years ago and it doesn’t seem to have taken yet. They need to start seeing results from home grown talent or they’ll continue to be a doormat for the foreseeable future.
Minnesota Twins
They’ll win the division if…They continue to follow their own model of consistency. Five playoff appearances since 2002. An endless supply of contributors graduating from their minor league level. A core built around a hometown rock(Mauer), a Canadian masher(Morneau) and speed/defense, a reliable rotation and a manager that knows how to deal with any curveball thrown his way. Rod Gardenhire gets the most out of his players and always puts his team in a position to win. The Twins have to be the favorites to win the division, even without closer Joe Nathan for the long haul.
Potential Breakout…Delmon Young/Scott Baker. Young has disappointed since joining the club from TB a few years ago, but he’s primed for a breakout. He’s a speed/power threat and with regular AB’s he could do major damage. Scott Baker is the new staff leader and will be expected to lead the rotation from the start, he might be hittable, but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks and is sure to pile up wins with such a potent offense behind him. Francisco Liriano is a sleeper as the #5 starter coming into the year, but Baker is the man now in Minnesota.
Rookie Impact…3B Danny Valencia. Valencia is an advanced bat and could probably start on a team with a 3B need. The problem is Brendan Harris blocks him in Minny, but should Harris struggle look for the Twins to make the call and add Valencia’s bat to an already powerful offense.
The Twins will no doubt make due with their better-than-average bullpen to replace All-Star joe Nathan. If they struggle, they have more than enough minor league depth to make a deal for a guy like Heath Bell in SD. The offense looks better than ever with a happy(new 8 yr/bazillion dollar deal) and healthy Mauer and Morneau, steady bats in Cuddyer and Kubel and new additions Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy. The staff doesn’t look like anything special but can’t be overlooked. The Twins are primed for another postseason run, but the White Sox and Tigers won’t make it easy on them.
When the dust settles….
The Twins are an easy pick for favorite. It’s also easy to count out the Indians and Royals. The not so easy task is pegging the White Sox and Tigers. Both teams have the talent to win a division, but can they overcome a team like the Twins to do so? The Tigers have big time questions in the rotation, which can lead to big problems when trying to win a division. The Sox have one of the best rotations in baseball, a quality that can carry a potentially light hitting lineup. This division looks like it’s going to come down to Minnesota and Chicago, and the pale hose pitching may be exactly the right formula to overthrow the Twins empire.
Chicago White Sox 89-73
Minnesota Twins 87-75
Detroit Tigers 82-80
Cleveland Indians 74-88
Kansas City Royals 72-90
April 4th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
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