Hardly anyone is picking the Saints today. If they do 3 simple things, they can shock the world.
By Scott Pharr
I have been carefully following all the usual football expert suspects over the last two weeks to try and get a feel for the general consensus regarding their opinion on who will prevail in today’s Super Bowl. From Peter King to Chris Collinsworth to Trent Dilfer to << enter your NFL Network or ESPN personality name here >>, today will be all about the blue horseshoe and number 18.
Peyton Manning
Overwhelmingly, those who follow pro football for a living are predicting victory for the Colts, and most who see that happening are saying the Vegas line of 5 ½ will be easily exceeded. There is just not a lot of love to be found for the consummate overachiever Drew Brees and his band of pinball-machine-scoring Saints. Let me rephrase that..there is plenty of ‘love’ for the Saints, in fact maybe more love than just about anytime I can recall recently, in any sport. Just not a lot of hardcore football faith that they can actually pull this thing off today. Watching the Colts systematically take apart the Jets in the 2nd half of the AFC championship game does make it truly hard to imagine any team better than the Colts for 60 minutes of football. I offer 3 reasons why the Saints can in fact do what so many say just can’t be done today.
1) MINIMIZE TURNOVERS
In the previous 43 Super Bowls, the winning team holds a + 83 advantage in turnover ratio. Its sounds cliché and redundant, but numbers don’t lie and this one speaks louder than any other statistic. The winning team has taken the ball away via a turnover 83 more times than the teams that have lost it. When the Saints beat the Minnesota Favre-kings 2 weeks ago, they were out-gained in total yardage, had less time of possession, and fewer first downs. But while the Vikings essentially dominated in all phases of the game, they just couldn’t hold on to the ball. New Orleans was the beneficiary of 5 turnovers, 3 by fumble and 2 by interception (1 which will go down in playoff infamy as Brett Favre did what he really does best by committing the ultimate sin with time expiring in regulation). Then the Saints got a little bit of luck (or was it destiny) by winning the coin toss and getting the ball to start overtime. The game today has all the opportunity to unfold in the same way, with Manning taking the Colts up and down the field, winning all the statistical battles, and continuing to put points up on the board. But if Gregg Williams’ defense can rattle Manning’s cage enough and get the Colt’s to cough it up at the wrong time, the Saints can steal it.
2) AVOID THE CRUCIAL INJURY
This of course is not something they can control, really. But it can’t be ignored as a key component to what the Saints will need to fall in their favor in order to prevail. In the AFC title game, the Jets were having their way with the Colts for 90% of the 1st half. Shutdown corner Derrell Revis was doing what he does by removing the Colts #1 wideout, Reggie Wayne, from the Colts game plan with lockdown coverage. However, the Jets sustained injuries to the starting free safety and #2 cornerback, and forced 2nd and 3rd tier players into action. This caused a drop in both athletic ability and player preparation, weakness easily exploited by Manning and the Colt’s offense. Keeping all of it’s front-line players on the field will be critical to the success of the Saint’s defense to contain the Colt’s score-at-will potential, or at least contain it enough to where the Saint’s offense can keep pace. Which leads to #3….
3) SCORE AND SCORE OFTEN
This Super Bowl carries an over –under (the Las Vegas betting number that predicts the total amount of points scored by both teams) of 55. That is the highest number ever posted for a Super Bowl to date. All the prognosticators are predicting a shoot out, and if it works out that way, the Saints will have a fighting chance. It is naïve to think they can hold the Colts to under 20 points, which basically means they will need to plan on scoring at least 21 or more. It will be crucial for them to continue to press the action up field, at all times. This means screen passes to Reggie Bush, up-the-field throws to tight end Jeremy Shockey, and the occasional shot downfield to any of the 4 highly capable wideouts.
Drew Brees
Brees must keep his foot on the accelerator, and this is done with continuous passes of 10 yards or more out of a spread formation. The goal will be to have the Colts defensive backs constantly back-peddling and hopefully out of breath by halftime. Head coach Sean Peyton installs every play and also calls every offensive play, and his offensive strategy is one of misdirection and deception, backed up by the quick strike. Brees is among the best in the league with regard to time elapsed from snap of the ball to release. There is a shorter period of time for anyone playing the Saints to react to what is happening than most teams in the league. While the Colts will most certainly get their points, if the Saints can match that and keep it tight into the fourth quarter, they will have a serious shot at victory, just like the Minnesota game.
FINAL THOUGHTS…
The key thing to monitor while watching is order of who may end up with the ball last as time is winding down in the 4th quarter. Similar to a close college basketball game as time is running out – the last team with the ball usually wins. And, if recent history is any predictor, the game should be close. Super Bowls are no longer the blowouts they use to be. 7 of the last 12 Super Bowls have been decided by 7 points or less, and the last 2 by a field goal. Young Garrett Hartley, the 23-year old kicker for the Saints who nailed the winning field goal in overtime in the NFC title game, very well may be today’s hero. And the Saints know better than anyone..stranger things have happened.
