by Tony Bosma
It’s easy to simply predict the New Orleans Saints will welcome the Dallas Cowboys to town Saturday night, then quickly rip them apart and send them picking with a third-straight December loss in 2009.
Such a prediction can be based solely on the fact that (a) Dallas is horrible in December and (b) the Saints are one-of-two undefeated teams in the NFL and are hotter than fire itself.
Looking closer, handing the game to New Orleans before the game is even played may be jumping the gun.
Here’s the matchup on paper with offensive and defensive averages, with league rank, for each team:
Dallas
Offensive Averages Per Game (League Rank)
Points: 22.8 (13th)
Yards: 391.1 (3rd)
Pass Yards: 262.5 (6th)
Rush Yards: 128.5 (7th)
Defensive Averages Per Game (League Rank)
Points: 17.9 (6th)
Yards: 329.4 (14th)
Pass Yards: 229.2 (21st)
Rush Yards: 100.2 (8th)
New Orleans
Offensive Averages Per Game (League Rank)
Points: 35.8 (1st)
Yards: 426.1 (1st)
Pass Yards: 287.2 (3rd)
Rush Yards: 138.9 (5th)
Defensive Averages Per Game (League Rank)
Points: 21.1 (18th)
Yards: 347.6 (21st)
Pass Yards: 235.6 (23rd)
Rush Yards: 112 (19th)
What can be determined from these stats? A few things:
1) Judging solely by defensive statistics and league rank, it’s clear the Cowboys have a defensive advantage. The problem? The heart of the Cowboys defense, DeMarcus Ware, is nursing a sprained neck and may not be available by Saturday. Without Ware, the Cowboys D becomes average to slightly below average. Without Ware drawing a double-team, New Orleans can direct more attention to Jay Ratliff and Anthony Spencer, spelling doom for the Cowboys pass rush.
2) No matter who is playing defense for the Cowboys or Saints, you’re going to get a high scoring shoot out from these teams. Especially if Ware doesn’t play. New Orleans ranks in the top 5 in all offensive categories above and Dallas only escapes the top 10 in points.
One thing that can’t be determined by any stats is who wants to win this game more. On one hand, you have the Saints, fighting to stay undefeated and playing at home. On the other, you have a desperate Cowboys team that hasn’t performed well in December since Y2K.
However, one thing must not be overlooked. Sean Payton is coaching against his former team. A team that willingly let him go to New Orleans. You think the Cowboys could use a coach like Payton? And don’t you think it would feel pretty sweet for Payton to knock off his old team?
More to come later in the week…
