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(Michael MacDonald October 5, 2009)

Call them the California Angels or call them the Anaheim Angels or call them the Los Angeles  Angels — the Red Sox know this team well and tjhe the same is true in reverse. For the third straight year and fourth time in six years, the Red Sox and Angels will clash in the post-season. This is also the sixth post-season appearance by the Sox in the last seven years…a string that began when manager Terry Francona took over the reins in 2003. Theo Epstein became general manager that year as well.

The best 3-out-of-5 series will begin either Wednesday or Thursday in Anaheim depending on when the Yankees decide they want to play. They won’t decide that till the outcome of the one-game playoff between Minnesota and Detroit is decided on Tuesday.  (My hunch is that New York will opt for Wednesday if they face the Tigers to help ensure they see Tiger ace Justin Verlander until at at least game 2; if they draw the Twins, I think the Yankees may well put off the start till Thursday.)

The past match-ups have not led to good results for the Angels but the past means nothing when the post-season begins. All-in-all, the Sox are in as good shape as they could realistically hope for. The acquisition of Victor Martinez allows the Red Sox to have a batting line-up that is loaded from spots 1 to 9 when he is catching.

So, how do the teams match-up this year?

Head-to-Head Starting Pitching

The Red Sox have announced that their starting three are Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buckholz. Lester is as good as any left-handed pitcher in baseball and Beckett has proved his value in the post-season on numerous times. Buckholz has had a couple of rough starts but comes equipped with a lot of pitches. Daisuke Matsuzaka would be the 4th starter if the Sox needed to go that deep. The Angels answer with John Lackey (who will pitch the ALDS Game 1 for the third year in a row), Jared Weaver and Scott Kazmir. Add Joe Saunders as the potential number 4 guy. I like the Red Sox top two guys but this match-up comes down to who gets hot.  Advantage: none.

Head-t0-Head Relief Pitching

The Los Angeles press writes of the horrid ERA numbers emanating from the Red Sox staff. A lot of that can be attributed to horrid relief pitching by several members of the Sox and, more importantly, Francona sorting through his options for the post-season. The players racking up those astronomical ERAs will not be pitching. The Red Sox bullpen is loaded. Start with Paul Byrd and possibly Matsuzaka in long-relief and then go down the line to flame throwers Jonathan Pappelbon and Billy Wagner in closing roles. This bullpen is lights-out. The Angels bullpen is, in a word, ordinary. Closer Brian Fuentes has been very hittable over the final month of the season. Ervin Santana has been throwing well and Kevin Jepsen has good stuff. Advantage: Red Sox

Head-to-Head Hitting

The Angels have the highest team batting average (.285) and the second highest run production in the league. The Angels are loaded from top to bottom with the likes of Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli. Abreu and Hunter in particular have hit Sox pitching hard in the past. The Red Sox counter with a team that has led the majors in home runs since the beginning of August and are first, second or third in every offensive category in that time period. Victor Martinez has been hitting .336 since his acquisition. David Ortiz who went 0-for-April and 1-for-May has led the majors in home runs since then. The Sox feature Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Martinez, Jason Bay, Oritz, J D Drew, Kevin Youklis, Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzalez. Based on power and production over the past two months: Advantage: Boston.

Head-to-Head Base Running

This is an unusual category to bring up and I do so not because of Ellsbury who will certainly wreak havoc on the bases but because teams lately have discovered they can run on Boston. The Red Sox have just a 9.6% success rate in catching base stealers…expect the Angels, who have a lot of speed in the lineup, to run wild on the Sox. As the Yankees have repeatedly shown, good base running leads to runs. Advantage: Angels.

Head-to-Head Fielding

Over the course of the year, there has been little to choose from between these two teams. The Angels have committed just 85 errors in 6043 fielding chances this year, a .986 average, 7th best in the majors and third best in the American League. The Red Sox have committed just 82 errors in 5844 fielding plays this year for a .986 average as well, 5th best in the majors and second best in the AL. While catcher Victor Martinez is a defensive liability when compared to Jason Varitek, the Sox have nevertheless been the best team in baseball defensively since the acquisition of Alex Gonzalez. Some would argue–correctly–that these statistics do not take into account the Red Sox’ inability to control base runners. That flaw is addressed above. Otherwise, Advantage: slight edge to Red Sox.

Grades, Please

I’m not going to bother discussing coaching…both teams have great managers and support staff. The final report cards then:

	Angels	Red Sox
Starting Pitching	B+	B+
Bullpen	C+	A
Hitting	A-	A
Fielding	A	A
Base Running	A	B
Management	A	A

Prediction

Red Sox win the series in 4 games.

mikemac4344 | Angels, Red Sox | 10 5th, 2009 |

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