Michael MacDonald (Sept 11, 2009)
At 81-58, the Boston Red Sox have 23 games remaining in the season. With the New York Yankees 9 games ahead of the Sox in the AL East standings, it’s a safe bet that there will be no Eastern Division Championships this year. On the other hand, a division championship is not what the Red Sox are looking for. The team maintains a 2-game lead in the AL Wild Card race over Texas with no other team in sight. Losers of their last 8, the Tampa Bay Rays have pretty much imploded and now trail the Red Sox by 9.5 in the wild card race. The Sox are looking to sneak into the playoffs via the wild card, dump the Angels and then square off against the Yankees for the AL pennant.
So, what’s the landscape looking forward? A look at the schedule of the Rangers:
Texas Rangers Third Baseman Michael Young hopes to return from his hamsting injury next weekend.
Like Boston, Texas has 23 games remaining. 12 of those games are at home to include a 9-game home stand beginning tonight with a 3-game weekend series against Seattle followed by 3-game series against Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners have lost 5 straight and the A’s are bumping along at the bottom of the AL West. Even with 3 tough games with the Angels next weekend, the Rangers have an opportunity to make up ground on the Red Sox. The team is 7-3 in the last 10 games and piled up 31 runs against the Indians in the last 3 games. If the Rangers run up a 7-2 record in the home stanza, they could be holding the wild card lead by the end of next weekend.
The team travels to Oakland for four games before returning home for 3 more games against Tampa Bay. With Carlos Pena out for the rest of the season, you have to wonder when the Rays will start to just mail it in. The Rangers’ last 7 games are on the road with 4 games in Los Angeles and 3 in Seattle. It’s reasonable to speculate that the 79-60 Rangers will end up with somewhere between 92 and 94 wins for the season.
The Rangers should be in good shape but…
Red Sox first/third baseman Kevin Youkilis is batting .313 with 24 homeruns and 83 runs batted in.
First and foremost, the Red Sox are in charge of their own destiny. If they win, they are in the playoffs. The Rangers need for the Sox to lose.
In a comparison of schedules, the advantage would seem to go to the Sox. They open a 6-game home stand tonight against the Rays — a team that is wounded and is reeling but that remains dangerous. The Sox then host 3 games against the Angels. A 6-game sweep of the two series would be nice but doesn’t seem likely. I’d feel pretty good if the Sox went 4-2.
Following the home stand, the Red Sox depart for a long 10-game stretch through Baltimore (3 games), Kansas City (4 games) and then New York (3 games). Boston has pretty much owned the Orioles this year and the AL Central last-place Royals pitching staff is on life support. Even given Boston’s poor road record this year, there’s a good shot of going 6-1 or 5-2 headed into the New York series. The Sox need to win at least one of those games, preferably two.
With some decent hitting and pitching, the Red Sox should be at 90 wins going into their last 7 games — all at home with 3 against Toronto and 4 against Cleveland. It is not inconceivable that the Sox win 97-98 games for the year but 94-95 seems more likely.
Just as teams do catch lightening in a bottle so also do do collapse; New York Mets fans may be able to relate a story or two. The Red Sox task is simple…go out and take care of business. If they beat the teams that they should beat, they are in the playoffs. The team that looked awful for much of July and early August is looking pretty good right now. Boston bats have been explosive. For the month of September, they are averaging nearly 7 runs a game and with the possible exception of Jason Varitek, the Red Sox lineup is loaded from top to bottom. The Red Sox hit 50 home runs in August (second highest one month total in team history) and launched 6 home runs two games ago against the Orioles.
The pitching has continued to prove a puzzle. Josh Beckett has inexplicably allowed a dozen home runs over his last several starts. Coming out of the bullpen, Manny Delcarmen has been getting lit up. But, other pieces of the pitching staff have been solid and Billy Wagner has proved to be a brilliant acquisition. Paul Byrd has pitched well in 2 of his 3 starts but my gut tells me he is not the man I want on the mound in a big game. Tim Wakefield looks to be on course to getting a start next weekend in Baltimore.
Maybe another exciting post-season is upon us?
