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Covering the Spread: Sept. 12-13
By: Wes F | Friday September 11th, 2009

By Wes and Dudley French

The 2009 NFL season has officially kicked off and it’s time to make some wagers. Couple that with week two of college ball and it’s about the happiest time of year for bookies all over the globe.

From My father and I will be providing you with insight on the top college games each week as well as the best bets for the pro slate of games. I’m not going to pretend to be some genius on college lines, but I did go 3-1 in my inaugural picks last week, and I might have made some beer money in college online (totally legally, of course). Dudley, my father, has been playing the lines forever and consistently put a hurt on me in our pick ‘em league last year, so I figured I’d put him to work on it here.

So enough with the introductions, on to the picks.

Saturday, September 12th

Notre Dame(-4) @ Michigan, O/U – 48
These two storied programs have been all but laughing stocks the last few seasons. They each started 2009 on the right foot with convincing wins, scoring in the 30′s and combining to give up just 7 points. The Irish were expected to have a big play offense this year but showed lots of improvement on defense by shutting down a threatening Nevada pass attack for zero points. Michigan got a big win for Rich Rodriguez at home, but will be down a man in the secondary this week and may be over matched on talent alone.
Michigan will feed off the home crowd, but the crowd can’t stop Golden Tate and the Notre Dame receivers. Notre Dame’s improved defense will face another dual-threat QB in Tate Forcier, the same type they stifled last week. I have to admit it’s been a while since I rooted FOR Notre Dame, but I can’t bet against the Golden Domers this week.
PICK: ND -4
USC(-7 1/2) @ Ohio State, O/U – 45 1/2
USC destroyed OSU last season in the Rose Bowl to the tune of 35-3. Mark Sanchez has moved on to the NFL as have many of the OSU defenders from that 2008 contest. OSU QB Terrelle Pryor is a year smarter and more experienced than USC’s Freshman signal caller Matt Barkley, but Barkley has much more talent around him on offense.
This game will be won by USC’s offensive line and their ability to protect Barkley. The Horseshoe is no easy place to play, but Navy sure made that statement look moot in week one. I don’t recommend going against OSU at home often and I don’t know that I’ll ever take a team that’s giving seven and a half or more points on the road ever again, but USC is simply better in almost every facet of the game.
PICK: USC -7 1/2
South Carolina @ Georgia(-7), O/U – 37 1/2
For having two offensive minded coaches this rivalry has been ruled by the defenses. Last year’s contest was decided by a touchdown when Gamecock’s QB Chris Smelley threw a pick in the red zone with ten ticks left.
Mark Richt’s Bulldogs struggled last week at Oklahoma State, an improved but just slightly above average defense. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecock’s scored just seven points on 256 total yards but held NC State to one field goal and held on for the win.
Georgia is at home and needs the win to avoid falling to 0-2, but South Carolina could use a big SEC road win like this to gain momentum and crack the top tier of the conference. Taking the seven and South Carolina is a tempting play, but I’m not convinced Spurrier’s bunch can score more than three-to-seven points at the Hedges . I’m going to take the under with the idea that this game ends 13-3 or 17-9 in Georgia’s favor.
PICK: Under 37 1/2
Wes: Last Week-3-1; Season-3-1
NFL
Sunday, September 13th

Miami @ Atlanta(-4), O/U – 43 1/2

The Falcons had a big turnaround last season led by Matt Ryan. Miami also had quite the renaissance, led by Chad Pennington (Last years AFC East champs),and they can score points. So who has the staying power to continue a run with the contenders? My money is on Miami. Bill Parcells is building a winner, and it will show with a big road win in week one. Miami’s special teams and defense will take them over the top in this one.

PICK: Miami +4

Philadelphia(-2 1/2) @ Carolina, O/U – 43 1/2
Philadelphia, behind Donovan Mcnabb, are potent and can still get it done. Carolina on the other hand lost all their pre-season games and had a disappointing end to last season with Jake Delhomme throwing all his int’s in the playoff against Arizona. Makes you wonder why management gave him more money and a long term contract while ignoring Julius Peppers.

None of the Panthers starters played in the pre-season so you really didn’t get to see the real football team, which could be problematic for the Eagles brass. The Panthers’ defense is stout at home, and the special teams should be fun to watch on both sides in this one. This is my LOCK. Take Steve Smith and Co. + the 2 1/2, they won’t need it.

PICK: Carolina +2 1/2

San Francisco @ Arizona(-6), O/U – 46

I’m not even going to beat around the bush here, I don’t like Arizona. At all. They over achieved en-route to the Super Bowl last year, and if not for the afore mentioned Delhomme meltdown they are watching the Super Bowl instead of blowing it with less than four minutes to play. Kurt Warner will regress, along with their already suspect defense. Couple that with a pouty/injured Q Boldin and they are ripe for the picking out West.

The 49ers on the other hand are going in a better direction. Mike Singletary added discipline to a team that desperately needed it and this will go a long way in turning around the once proud franchise. S.F. gave the Cardinals a pretty good game last year with Iron Mike at the helm, dropping the game on a last second failed attempt for a touchdown inside the two yard line. Look for more of the same and take the 49ers plus the 6 1/2 ALL DAY.

PICK: S.F. +6 1/2

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