We are all aware that the AL Central boasts two of the best closers in the game. But how do they perform when they have to take over for a teammate who has left runners on base? Where do the AL Central team’s bullpens rank in handling inherited runners?
Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria are amazing specimens of dominant pitching prowess, but only one of them has been good this season in taking out someone else’s garbage. Joe Nathan is a perfect 8/0 this season. He has inherited eight runners and none of them have scored. (IR/IS -that is the representation I will be using throughout this report)
Joakim Soria, on the other hand, has allowed three of his four inherited runners score this season. Granted, he has spent some time on the disabled list and has pitched without feeling 100%, but his numbers represent an all too familiar trend in 2009’s AL Central.
Inherited Score Percentage (IS%) is calculated very easily. When your favorite reliever comes into a game, look to see how many people there are on base. Those aboard are inherited runners. If any of those runners are to score, their runs will not be held against your favorite relievers ERA, but will be accredited to the ERA of the pitcher who allowed them to get on base. This can prove detrimental to a pitchers final scoring line – most notably a starter’s.
The circumstance of someone else allowing runs to score, and having them count against you, is an infuriating situation. I consistently find myself thinking like a starting pitcher and feeling the sting of betrayal with every inherited run that crosses the plate.
In following boat-loads of division games this season, I have seen quite a few starters’ wins turned into loses and quality starts turned into embarrassments. Below is a breakdown of what AL Central teams are the biggest bullpen breakdown offenders.
The AL average of in IS% is 36%.
Minnesota: 115/38 =33%
Detroit: 131/53 =40%
Chicago: 103/42 =41%
Cleveland: 149/61 =41%
Kansas City: 118/55 =47%
Numbers accurate as of 07/06/09
Minnesota Twins
As you can see by the figures, Minnesota has had the most success in the division in this area. Knuckle-baller, R. A. Dickey, and former set-up man, Jesse Crain, are really the only Twin-city hurlers who have percentages over the league average. Dickey is 15/10 (67%) and Crain, who hasn’t pitched since June 14, is 13/6 (46%). Louis Ayala, who hasn’t pitched since mid-June, himself, is 17/6 (35%), slightly over the average as well.
Without Matt Guerrier, 30/9 = <30%, the Twins bullpen might be a bit more of an adventure. Of course, Joe Nathan might think a bit differently. Guerrier has amassed 16 holds in 17 save-opportunites as Minnesota’s primary pre-closer option.
Nathan’s 8/0, 0 IS%, is by far the best in the division – as he may easily be the best reliever in the division.
Detroit Tigers
Everyday, Detroit’s Inherited Score percentage changes and my heart breaks more and more with every run. Earlier in the season Bobby Seay had a streak of ten appearances while allowing only three hits and maintaining a zero ERA. After surrendering two doubles in an inning the streak was broken. One run scored directly to Seay’s credit and then Joel Zumaya made sure that new ERA continued climbing. Seay has since returned the favor to other Tiger pitchers seven times.
Zumaya has only allowed one more inherited runner to score this season. Seay came into the conversation, however, because he is the Detroit version of Matt Guerrier. Without Seay and his 26% IS, the Tigers would likely be in even bigger trouble than they already are. Zumaya’s 14% is impressive, but he only has 14 opportunities – Seay is 27/7.
Otherwise, Zach Miner, Brandon Lyon, Nate Robertson and Ryan Perry – He has since been sent back to class-AAA Toledo – all have marks above the team average. Closer, Fernando Rodney has not inherited any runners and is thus perfect. [There is a Tiger Bright Spot for you.]
Chicago White Sox
Luckily for the White Sox, they have the fewest inherited base-runners in the division. Other than Closer, Bobby Jenks’ perfect 4/0 and Scott Linebrink’s 4/1, the White Sox IS% is much like that of Detroit. In fact, the two teams’ percentages switched this weekend -41%-40%.
Matt Thornton, who has been struggling a bit as of late, may be the ChiTown version of a mid-relief stopper. Thornton has inherited 24 runners this season. Nine of those runners have scored. His 38% is by far the best of any Sox pitcher with more than five opportunities. D.J. Corrasco is 19/9, Octavio Dotel is 18/10, and Clayton Richard was 12/5 before being added to the starting rotation.
Cleveland Indians
Amazingly, the Indians terrible luck in 2009 has not extended to their bullpen’s ability to halt runners on the base-paths. The Tribe is right next to the Sox and the Tigers in this area. Since sending Rafael Betancourt left to the DL on June 1, much of the mid-inning stoppage duty has been allocated to the arm of Rafael Perez. Betancourt had been impressive at 14/2 before leaving. Perez has only allowed eight of 24 runners to score.
Jensen Lewis (25/12) and Matt Herges (19/10) have also been thrown into runners-on relief situations; but met a negative result. Luis Vizcaino has allowed three of his four runners to score.
Joe Smith has matched the league average at 36% in his 14 situational appearances. Kerry Wood is 3/1 this season as well.
Kansas City Royals
Ramon Colon, who has only appeared 13 times this season, is far and away the Royals’ best option for relief situations with runners on base. His 11/3 mark, to go with Robinson Tejeda’s 17/6, is the only positive to talk about regarding Royals stranding inherited runners. Horacio Ramirez and Sidney Ponson had been solid in these situations, but neither of them is on the Royals active roster anymore. Ramirez is now in the Washington Nationals’ minor league system, after being 11/2 for KC with runners on.
Jamey Wright (23/13) and Ron Mahay (19/11) are sadly the go-to men for the BBQ Barons, despite Inherited Score Percentages in the mid 50s. So much was thought of the Royals in April, but unfortunately, they just haven’t performed to the hype.
Shut It Down:
The AL Central has seen a plethora of excellent starting efforts in the first half of this season: Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Nick Blackburn (against the Tigers), Jose Contrares (again, against the Tigers), and Cliff Lee (against the Cardinals)… What the season has lacked, however, are lights-out bullpen efforts.
The AL Central Division has been a haven for bullpen mediocrity thus far this season. This report has been aimed to put the blame where it belongs. If you are a stat tracker, fantasy junkie, or just the argumentative type, here are some reference points that can help you talk the talk or dominate the rotisserie.
MLB.com includes the numbers of inherited runners-scored with the pitch-counts at the bottom of their box scores. When choosing a pitcher for fantasy teams, or attacking those annoying Sox fans, make sure you know who is backing up your starters. Starters ERAs can wind up much higher than they should be when middle and late relievers can’t get runners to stay put.
Allowing inherited runners to score is not a victimless crime. This stat has been a pet-peeve of mine for years now and the more you look at it the more you will see how impactful this stat can really be.
July 8th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Great stuff, Nate.