The 2009 AL Central has been anything but predictable.
The Indians and Royals have been major disappointments. Many (including three of our writers) had the Indians winning the division and some experts even had them winning it all, but they’ve been brutal. The Royals, with all their youth, looked like they were set up for a turn around, but they struggled as usual. The other three teams, however, find themselves separated by four games with two-plus months to play.
The Tigers, White Sox and Twins all have obstacles to overcome on the way to the top in the second half, some larger than others…
Detroit Tigers-48-39
The Tigers were just 11-10 through April, but took the division lead on May 8th and have held at least a share of the top spot every day since. Detroit can thank the dominance of a couple starters and timely hitting from their corner infielders for the success of the first half.
The Tigers finished 27th in the league in ERA last year but enter the break in 8th this season, thanks in large part to Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. Verlander has been the Ace Detroit expected him to be last year, bouncing back from a horrid 2008 to post a 10-4 record, 3.38 ERA and 149 K’s. Verlander’s success has rubbed off on winter addition Jackson, who’s 2.52 ERA is good for second in the AL, behind Zack Greinke (2.12).
The offense has been anchored by Brandon Inge and Miguel Cabrera. Inge has made the most of his hits, clubbing 21 home runs and 58 RBI with just a .268 avg. Cabrera has been his usual slugging self, putting together a line of 18-50-.321 in the first half. Magglio Ordonez has been a non-factor, making Inge’s accomplishments that much more important. Ordonez has just 4 HRs thus far, including none in the month of May, and just 28 RBI. Not what you’d expect from a guy who averages 13/51 over the first half for his career. He is now part of a RF platoon with Clete Thomas.
The Schedule
The Tigers will be tested from the start in the second half.
They begin with 13 straight against .500+ teams, going to NY, hosting SEA and CHI and then traveling to TEX. If they start slow, they could find themselves looking up in the Central for the first time in over two months.
Detroit will benefit from two extra homes series from that point on. The Tigers 27-13 mark at home is 2nd in the AL to Boston (31-14) and they should be able to keep up that pace as they play 21 of 41 home games against KC, CLE, BAL, TOR and SEA (all under .500 records except SEA-46-42). The true test for the Tigers will come on the road (21-26), as they make trips to BOS(4), LAA, NY and TB. Their longest road trip comes with two and a half weeks left in the season and takes them to MIN, CLE and CHI. That trip falls in the middle of 19 straight divisional games to close the season.
Deal or no deal?
Detroit will need to find a better balance in the order to keep the top spot. Jackson and Verlander might fall off a bit just by the law of averages, putting more pressure on the offense. Inge can’t be expected to keep up his pace, so a trade for a better left-handed platooner with Ordonez (Luke Scott? Mark Teahen?) could be a major benefit. 19 games against CLE/KC help, but they have 19 against CHI/MIN, too.
Chicago White Sox-45-43, 3.5 GB
Ah, the White Sox. They’ve led the division, twice. They’ve been as many as six and a half games out of first, twice. They’ve gone on a five game losing streak and two four game losing streaks. They’ve gone on a seven game winning streak and won 15 of 22, going from five games under .500 to four games over in three weeks. This team has been all over the map, but they find themselves in second place. Somehow. Barely.
Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye have led the attack on offense, each hitting .302 with a combined 36 HRs and 115 RBI. Jim Thome has continued his assault on 600 HRs, extending his career mark to 555 with 14 in the first half. Alexei Ramirez overcame a slow start (0-for his first 13, .203 on May 1st) to finish the with a .281 avg, 11 HR and 42 RBI. Scott Podsednik has solved the leadoff problems the Sox have had since he left in 2006, batting .311 with 13 stolen bases since he re-joined the club in May. Josh Fields was expected to hit better than his two HR and .224 avg coming into June and was replaced by golden boy Gordon Beckham. Beckham struggled at first but entered the break with a .367 avg over his last 16 games.
Mark Buehrle has been Mark Buehrle, winning nine games with a 3.66 ERA, as he continues to be ol’ reliable for the Sox. Jose Contreras was garbage, went to AAA, then came back as Bob Gibson. John Danks was great, took an eight start hiatus, then returned to respectablity. Gavin Floyd was up and down until late May, when he began a 5-2 run through ten starts, lowering his ERA from 6.54 to 4.44. The fifth starter’s spot has been an adventure, with Bartolo Colon and Clayton Richard showing flashes of stability, only to overshadow those performances with clunkers. The bullpen has been a strength all season, with Jenks, Thorton and Dotel leading the way.
The Schedule
Someone in the organization definitely pissed off the schedule makers as the Sox have the toughest second half schedule in the AL.
Chicago does have 38 games at home versus 36 away, but that’s where the good news ends. After an opening set with Baltimore the White Sox have 51 of their final 71 games against .500+ teams, including 25 against BOS, LAA, NY and TB. They have both long home stands and road trips, but they won’t like either. They’ll welcome NY, LAA and then CLE to the Cell as July becomes August. Then, two weeks later, they’ll travel to BOS, NY, MIN and the North side for a make up date with the Cubs, equaling an eleven game road trip that carries into September. Even the division schedule is brutal, with just 12 games left against CLE/KC and 19 against DET/MIN. Nine of their final 12 will come against DET/MIN.
Deal or no deal?
Kenny Williams doesn’t like to stay quiet, so look for the Sox to make a deal, big or small. Halladay is probably going to cost Beckham and two or three more bodies, so that’s not happening. Chicago would do well to find a stable fifth starter, and could pry John Garland or Doug Davis from Arizona without too much haggling. Another Outfielder would be nice too (Cody Ross from FLA?), with Carlos Quentin looking less and less likely to rejoin the team and Anderson and Wise have been awful at the plate.
Minnesota Twins-45-44
The Twins just never go away. They have finished no worse than third in the division in eight straight years, earning the crown four times. This year looked pretty rough during the spring with questions about the starting rotation, Joe Mauer’s health and if there was anyone who would step up to help out Justin Morneau. Things worked out well enough that the Twins find themselves in great position to make a run at their fifth title in nine years.
Mauer is simply ridiculous. He misses spring training and all of April then starts May by crushing the ball, hitting .444 with eleven homers and 31 RBI in his first 23 games. He currently leads the MLB in average at .373. His buddy Morneau didn’t miss a beat, finishing the first half in the top five in the AL in HR(21) and RBI(70). The story of the offense has been the supporting cast, with Joe Crede, Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel combining for a line of 42-132-.274. Denard Span has been great from the lead off spot (.292, 16 SBs/50 runs), helping the team to cope with Nick Punto’s deficiencies (.201 8 SBs/26 runs).
The rotation has been much less encouraging. Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker have a combined 17 wins, but fat ERAs (4.86/5.42 respectively). This suggests they’ve gotten good run support, something that could create more losses for them in the second half if they aren’t so lucky. Glen Perkins has just four wins in 13 starts, but is not their worst four win starter. That goes to Francisco Liriano and his 4-9 record, complete with 5.47 ERA. Liriano has shown no signs of his dominating slider that brought him so much success before TJ surgery and is paying for throwing nothing but fastballs. Good thing for Nick Blackburn (eight wins). His 3.06 ERA leads the team and his mates will look to him as their most reliable pitcher in the second half. Joe Nathan is second in the NL in saves (23) and his 1.31 ERA leads the Twins Bullpen that is ranked fourth in the AL in that category (3.73).
The Schedule
Nothing comes easy in baseball, but the Twin’s schedule in the second half is very favorable.
Minnesota has 40 of 73 games on the road, but will get ten of them out of the way right after the break (TEX/OAK/LAA). They’ll play just 29 of 63 games against .500+ teams after that trip, and only eleven of their last 29 (which drops to eight if the White Sox are under in Sept.). They have two nine game home stands a week apart that look great for them on paper. They first host BAL, TEX and CHI to close August, play at CLE and TOR and then return home to play OAK, CLE and DET in mid-September. That’s 18 of 25 at home when wins are at a premium.
The Twins will play the most divisional games in the second half (43), but 24 come against CLE/KC. They close with 19 divisional contests, including a ten game trip to CHI, KC and DET before hosting KC to end the season. The Twins have struggled on the road (17-24), but this schedule seems like it will even those numbers out, if not put them over .500.
Deal or no deal?
The Twins aren’t normally players at the July 31st trade deadline, usually getting their work done in the off-season (wouldn’t they like to have Garza back right now). But with plenty of youth on the MLB club and in the minors they could and should make an attractive package for a serviceable starter. A solid number three or four (again, Garland or Davis? maybe Marquis?) in the rotation would all but ensure that the Twins will be the team to beat come September.
And the Winner is…
The White Sox are screwed. I don’t see how they overcome the brutal schedule as well as the probable drop off that will hit the pitching staff when they face all the heavy hitting lineups in the AL East (BOS/NY/TB).
The Tigers have made it work so far, but they will need to get balance between their hitting and pitching. The arms will probably fall of a bit, but they have the talent to hit with some of the better teams in the league. Adding a bat would go a long way, too.
The Twins are in a similar position, but need the pitching to catch up to the bats. If Minnesota’s starting pitchers can work to put less men on base and lower their ERA, where at 4.63 (11th in AL) they have plenty of room for improvement, they will find themselves on top in October.
Chicago will battle for the next two months, having to earn everything they get. They won’t have enough left once September comes, however, finishing 78-84 in third place.
Minnesota and Detroit will play seven times in the last two and half weeks of the season. These meeting will matter more to Detroit when they happen because the Twins will be five games ahead when they play.
Detroit comes in a close second after stumbling out of the gate and never coming completely back, finishing 85-77.
When the dust settles Minnesota will wear the Division Crown, finishing 88-74.
July 22nd, 2009 at 5:12 pm
trash-talk: If the Sox have the hardest schedule in the second half, doesn’t that mean that they would have had the easiest one in the first half? and they still haven’t done much… I hate the White Sox
I like your predictions and actually agree with them… I think Minnesota may need a bit more work though if they want to beat out the Tigers. Even with Jason Marquis, they would need a bit more. Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have likely already cashed in their chips…
The Tigers have a whole Minor league system full of players who can play every position on the field and I think Teahan moay not be the answer… Luke Scott could be fun to have, but he has a power bat and limited OF ability – they already have Marcus Thames… I would like to see them pick up an Arm or two for Mike Hessman and Don Kelly… With a real #5 and Armando Galarraga to not be somewhat decent, the Tigers can claim it…
…but they wont. A 2.5 man rotation isnt enough to beat the modern day M&Ms.