Yet again the Minnesota Twins came out of nowhere to become a factor in the AL Central race. In 2008, a season when all eyes were on Detroit’s heavy hitters, the Twinkies looked like they would be lost from the start. If you’ve been paying attention to the central recently, however, you know that that is never the case.
2008 Review
Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau proved that they were an evil combination in the Twins’ batting order. In 2008, the Twin City M & Ms finished the year amongst league leaders in RBI (Morneau 129) and Batting Average (Mauer .328).
Mauer’s mark won him his second batting title in three years. Morneau’s 129 RBI put him is second place behind Josh Hamilton of Texas (130) and a second place finish in the AL MVP voting behind Boston’s Dustin Pedroia.
Possibly the scariest thing about these two players was that they are well above-average fielders as well. In fact, the whole team is. In 2008 Minnesota made the third fewest errors in the AL (108) and turned the fifth most double-plays (465).
Minnesota’s scrappy, young speedsters like Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez helped the Twins to score the third most Runs (829) and hit for the most Triples in the AL (49) last season.
Rookies Denard Span and Nick Blackburn both received votes for Rookie of the Year and made a case for the Twins to be a force yet again in the central.
Span appeared in 93 games, accumulating 102 Hits and 18 swiped bags. Starting Pitcher Nick Blackburn finished his rookie campaign with a .500 record (11-11) and a very respectable 4.05 ERA in nearly 200 innings pitched.
The Twins pitching staff gave up the fewest walks of any pitching staff in the AL. They also scared the waste out of opposing hitters when the game got into the late innings. Closer Joe Nathan recorded 39 saves in 2008 with a 1.33 ERA and 74 punch-outs in 67.2 Innings Pitched.
The Twins finished the year one game behind the Chicago White Sox after losing a pre-playoff, 163rd game in Chicago. The loss in that tie-breaker game will surely fuel the fire for 2009.
2009 Preview
Additions:
With a great crop of young enthusiastic ballplayers already in the system, the Twinkies were not in huge need for any big off-season acquisitions. In the winter and spring the Twins only made a couple moves. Two of them could prove to be very big however.
Plagued by back problems for the last couple seasons, former Chi Sox 3B Joe Crede was left untendered by the pale hose. Minnesota, who was well aware of his talent, signed him to a 1-year deal as soon as he showed he’d be able to play.
Crede, a solid glove-man and potential power bat, played 4-plus seasons with the Sox and had at least 19 homers and 60 RBI in all 4 of his full seasons. In 2006, Crede set career highs in homers and RBI with 30 and 94 while only fanning 58 times in 544 Abs.
He will take over as the everyday Third baseman for Humphrey baggy-domers and will likely add a very significant element to their team. His power and sure-handedness make him a great fit for the Twins.
In their dyer need for bullpen help in 2008 the New York Mets brought Louis Ayala over from the Washington Nationals. Luckily for the Twins, the Mets decided to go much more “high-profile” with their bullpen this season and cast Ayala aside.
Louis Ayala, a career 3.50 ERA reliever, has experience as a closer, recording 9 saves in 11 opportunities with the Mets, and has a very live arm. He has a career 3/1 k to walk ratio and will pitch as often as he’s allowed (75.2 innings in2008).
Ayala could be a great addition to the middle of this Minnesota bullpen.
Along with Crede and Ayala, the Twins welcomed former Texas and Seattle reliever R. A. Dickey to the relief crew. Dickey is a good option to have, but will remain low on the bullpen totem pole. He has a history of control problems. His career 5.57 ERA tells me he may not last too long in the tight and highly competitive AL Central.
Offense
This is where I break the bad news. Joe Mauer is gone for at least the first month of the season. He did not take part in Spring Training due to inflammation in his right sacroiliac joint – part of his lower back region – and is not expected back until at least the first of May.
Without him in the order Justin Morneau will see far fewer pitches throughout April given there is no reason not to pitch around him. Mauer’s .320+ batting average as well as 75+ RBI will be missed for obvious reasons. Mike Redmond, who will be Mauer’s primary back-up, has hit exactly 13 Home Runs and 231 RBI in his 11 major league seasons. Jose Morales, Redmond’s back-up, only has 3 Major League ABs before this season.
Ok, good news now. Justin Morneau is healthy and Joe Crede can definitely hit. The Twins or as Chicago White Soxmanager Ozzie Guillen calls them, “the piranhas” will continue to gnaw at the ankles of a opposing pitchers as well.
The key to the successes of the Twins, and frustrations of opposing teams, is Manager Ron Gardenhire’s belief in the practice of scrappy, never-say-die, small-ball by his speedsters. Historically, these players have usually come from the infield. However, with last year’s emergence of speedy outfielders Carlos Gomez and Denard Span, a new trend may have sprung. Joining Gomez and Span, who stole a combine 50 bases in 2008, are Nick Punto (15 SB and a .284 BA in 2008) Alexi Casilla (7hr, 50 RBI, 7 SB, and only 45 K in 385 ABs in ’08) and utility infielder Brendan Harris.
Michael Cuddyer, who hit 24 homers in 2006, will patrol Right field and adds the potential for 50+ extra-base hits.
Delmon Young, who is likely more noted for having thrown a bat at an umpire while in the minors than for his ability, is the fourth outfielder. If the Twins can find room for him, Young almost promises double digit homers and stolen bases every year. The key is, if they can find room.
When Mauer gets back I honestly believe Minnesota could be a force in the Central, but until then, I hope they can keep the other teams close.
Defense
This team’s ability to range in all directions and utilize great team speed is its key. The most underrated aspect to this teams defense is the strength of some of their players throwing arms.
Michael Cuddyer, originally an infielder, has possibly the single most-underrated throwing arm in baseball. Runners know not to run on Ichiro in the same way they knew not to run on Larry Walker or Andre Dawson, but Cuddyer? The man has a cannon!
For that matter, so does Mauer. Better known for his batting titles and sideburns, Mauer is a great catcher. He has thrown out 41% of all would-be base-stealers during his career. In 2007, he threw out a career high 53%.
This team’s biggest defensive problem will be thwarting the running game in Mauers absence.
Defensively, Minnesota will be amongst the AL leaders in fewest errors, DPs, and Fielding Percentage again, and likely will for as long as they have arguably the best manager in baseball.
Rotation
After missing most of last season with an injury, Francisco Liriano returned to the Metrodome and finished the 2008 campaign with a 6-4 record and a 3.91 ERA in 14 starts. If he is healthy, he could be the ace this team so badly needs. He has incredible stuff and ridiculous breaks on his off-speed pitches. Control has to be his game, however, if he is the least bit wild, he is only minimally effective. He relies on the swinging strike and deceiving hitters. If hitters aren’t fooled, Liriano will struggle.
While Scott Baker has matured, he is still not an ace-quality starter. Despite going 11-4 in 2008 and fanning 141 hitters, he may still be a year or so away – or perhaps an anxiety disorder like the Royals’ Zach Greinke – from being a dominant #1.
For the time being, he is a solid option at the front end of the rotation. With an increased workload after an impressive ’08, Baker’s performance in ’09 may be the most important factor for a good finish in the Central.
Nick Blackburn must have a better year than last year for the Minnesota rotation to be anything worth talking about. His rookie effort was something special, but with the weakness of this staff, Blackburn is going to have to grow-up very quickly.
Bullpen
Other than Joe Nathan, the Twins bullpen is painfully average. Since losing Juan Rincon to the Tigers and Dennys Reyes to the Cardinals, there may be only Jesse Crain and newcomer Louis Ayala to fear in the bullpen.
The veteran Crain has been a staple at the top of the bullpen pecking order since 2004. He boasts a career 3.35 ERA and a 2005 season where he recorded 12 wins with a sub 3 ERA in 75 appearances.
Matt Guerrier, who has solid numbers as a reliever, will work as the set-up man along-side Crain. Guerrier has above a 2/1 K/BB ratio and a career ERA in the mid 3s.
However, he is coming off a season where he went 6-9 with a 5.19 ERA over 76.1 innings.
As the season wears on, look for Ayala to move higher in the bullpen depth chart in case the worst-case scenario occurs and a Nathan should have to take some time off.
2009 Outcome
Pitching is going to have to be there for the Twins in 2009. With Mauer out and a weaker bullpen, Liriano, Baker, and Blackburn are going to have to have near-career years.
While it will be easier to pitch well when you have an elite game-caller behind the plate, as they will after April, the starters and relievers are going to have to be at their best to get by for the first month of the year.
The Piranha game that Gardenhire has mastered over the last few seasons will have to be nearly flawless and will have to score a lot more runs to compete in 2009.
The key here is Carlos Gomez must cut down on the strikeouts and stop trying to be “Willie Mays Hayes” from Major league 2. Just run, don’t try for the long-ball, run! 142 strikeouts are way too many for a leadoff hitter, which is why he’ll man the 8/9 spot if he can’t stop whiffing.
Delmon Young needs to get into more games and Joe Crede must be healthy. If these things all happen, The Twins can ride to the Promised Land atop some Justin Morneau clutch homers.
The addition of Crede puts some much needed power into the line-up and makes the Twinkies much more of a dynamic team. If he has a good year, so might their total offense.
Record: 81-81
Division: 3rd
